Recently, the USD exchange rate continued to rise to 6.77. That’s is the the highest USD exchange rate of 2021&2022.
I. The changes of exchange rate may have an impact on the trade balance
Generally speaking, the decline of the exchange rate of the local currency, that is, the devaluation of the external value of the local currency, can promote exports and inhibit imports. If the exchange rate of the local currency rises, that is, the external value of the local currency rises, it is conducive to imports, not conducive to exports. Therefore, we can see that exchange rate fluctuations can affect trade balance through the following channels. 1. Changes in the exchange rate will cause changes in the price of traded goods, which will have an impact on the trade balance.
Exchange rate fluctuations can affect imports, exports and trade balances by causing changes in the relative prices of goods in both domestic and international markets. Devaluation of local currency can reduce the relative price of domestic products and increase the relative price of foreign products, so that the price competitiveness of export commodities is enhanced and the price of import commodities rises, which is conducive to expanding export volume, restricting imports and promoting the improvement of trade balance. However, the price pass-through and competition effect of trade balance on exchange rate fluctuations are affected by two factors. The competitiveness of low-end products in the market mainly comes from the price advantage. Products are highly substitutable, and foreign demand is very sensitive to price changes. Therefore, exchange rate changes are easy to affect the export of products. While high-end products are highly competitive in the international market and have fixed demand, exchange rate fluctuations have a relatively small impact on commodity demand. Similarly, currency devaluation in makes the export commodities prices fall at the same time also causes the rising prices of imported goods, if goods produced in a country of many from imported raw materials, so a devaluation would make the production costs rise, compress the profit space, products are exported to hit manufacturers export enthusiasm, exchange rate changes on the improvement of the trade balance effect is not obvious.
Post time: Aug-09-2022